Death of Yar'Adua reveals the Anger of the People

According to the BBC Post "Death of Nigerian Leader exposes 'sham' Democracy" made on Monday, May 10th, Yar'Adua's death, though very tragic, actually has the potential to bring great good to Nigeria. Yar'Adua's Death has given Goodluck Jonathan a lot of power, more than he even had while Acting President, and many feel that he is likely to run for Presidency during the next election period, contrary to PDP doctrine of Switching th presidency every 8 years. This has a lot of popular approval from different areas, because the people don't feel that the region a person comes from is secondary to the ability of that person to deal with economic issues.

This Sort of change in political traditions, especially in a country like Nigeria, always has the potential to be very turbulent. However, if a true majority of the people feel that there is a better way to keep the democracy going than changing the hometown of the presidential candidates, then the legitimacy of the government will be helped.

Photo from Al Jezeera English

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#8 Shell unable to meet target oil production.

According to an article by Jon Gambrell of The Associated Press, a major Royal Dutch Shell pipeline suffered from a fire supposedly started by "thieves" on 5/7/10. The fire damage along with numerous leaks along Shell's subsidiary Trans-Niger pipeline has forced Royal Dutch Shell to declare "Force Majeure" or "A major event that prevents one or both parties from fulfilling their obligations under the contract agreed upon".

This could be a considerable problem for Nigeria. Due to this recent attack Royal Dutch Shell has been considering its presence within Nigeria. Regardless of their 50 year-history together with Nigeria, Royal Dutch Shell has announced that "they can no longer depend on Nigeria as a profit-maker". If Shell , the dominant oil power in Nigeria, does indeed abandon Nigeria it could result in economic chaos and possibly in the inability of Nigeria to even consider democratization.

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Nigerians lobby to be Jonathan's vice-president

According to an article by BBC News on May 7th, numerous Nigerian groups are lobbying for the vice-presidency of the recently sworn in Goodluck Jonathan. Analysts predict that the individual chosen for the position will likely be a strong contender in the 2011 election-- a prediction that adds significant weight to Jonathan's decision.

Jonathan will almost definitively pick an individual in the northern region of Nigeria, an action designed to pacify the severity of the countries cleavages. The presidency in Nigeria has alternated between the predominately Christian south and the Muslim north, and Yar'Adua's death signified a shortened period of Muslim rule. As a Christian, Jonathan must maintain regional balance to have a chance of having a less volatile period of rule.

Several names have been suggested thus far, including former anti-corruption chief Nuhu Ribadu and Yar'Adua's nephew, Murtala Yar'Adua. However, there has been speculation that Jonathan will defy political convention and stand as a candidate for the 2011 presidency in the governing People's Democratic Party.

Jonathan's delicate task of choosing a vice-president reveals the deep cleavages which have ravaged Nigeria. He is all but required to pick a northern Muslim to counterbalance his Christian presidency. The legitimacy of his presidency will likely be substantially hurt if he chooses to ignore this political tradition. By being sworn into the highest political office, Jonathan also took part in an important political change that thus far has not provoked the brutal protests of past presidencies. If he decides to represent the PDP personally in the upcoming 2011 election, Jonathan will break a political convention and alter the political institutions for future generations.

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Nigeria Fights and Wins Against the Terror of Guinea Worms

According the New York Times Article "Campaign to Eradicate Guinea Worm in Hard-Hit Nigeria May Have Worked" posted on December 7th, 2009, the debilitating parasite known as the Guinea Worm may be on the road to eradication. The Guinea Worm is a parasite that comes from drinking water infected with it's first how, a tiny water flea. The Guinea Worm then lives within a person's body for up to a year and then starts emerging from the skin through a sore that it creates. If the worm in not caught before this point, then removing the worm becomes a painful process that can take weeks to complete. The health professional can only remove a few millimeters of the worm a day because the worm attaches to the inside of the person, which makes the removal very painful. During the time that the worm is being removed, the sore can get infected, and the person can be maimed for life. Knowing the damage Guinea Worm, the Nigerian government created a social program to fight off Ginuea Worm infection with classes on safe water and health officials When the article was posted, Nigeria had no reported incidents of Guinea Worm in a year, and that incredibly good sign that has not been broken so far. It will take another two years before the country can truly say that is has eliminated the worm, but the fist year is the hardest.

The fact that the government is working to fight such an intractable problem definitely increases the legitimacy of government, because the will of the people is one of the key parts of the legitimacy in Nigeria. Helping defeat a disease that ruins live every year helps improve the rural peoples view of the Government, and that is always very important.

Photo From Times Report

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Post #8- Yar'Adua Passes Away

Photo courtesy of The Daily Enquirer

After a long struggle with heart and kidney problems, Nigerian president Umaru Yar'Adua passed away on Wednesday night at the age of 58. A May 5th article on by The New York Times describes the complex legacy he will leave behind. Yar'Adua's presidency got a controversial start with accusations of ballot-box stuffing and fraud, most of which are believed to be true. At the start of his presidency, Yar'Adua promised to end the rampant violence that hampered oil production in the Niger Delta, control corruption and fix the persistent power outtages in the country. However, Yar'Adua was not able to deliver on these promises; groups such as MEND still wreak havoc in the Niger Delta (although overall violence in the area has decreased), Nigeria's premier anti-corruption leader, Nuhu Ribadu, left the country after receiving death threats for cracking down on some of Yar'Adua's supporters and electricity still goes out at frequent intervals. But it cannot be forgotten that the transition from Presidents Obasanjo to Yar'Adua marked the first peaceful transfer of power in Nigeria since gaining its independence.

Yar'Adua's presidency and death brings up two very crucial questions for Nigeria. First and foremost, Nigeria's flawed democracy was both bolstered and hurt by Yar'Adua's presidency. While it is apparent that corruption will take years and years to leave the country in multiple facets of its society, the peaceful power transfer from Presidents Obasanjo to Yar'Adua and relatively peaceful power "transfer" from Yar'Adua to Jonathan are both signs that prove democracy may not be impossible. Second, because Yar'Adua, a Muslim, passed away with about a year left in his term and his Christian vice-president Goodluck Jonathan took office, there is significant debate over how to handle this so that the balance of each religion in power is maintained. For a country so divided on religious and ethnic cleavages, this issue is critical. In addition, because the Nigerian government has low legitimacy and little faith in the rule of law, implementing any changes in the country may result in violence and sharp disagreement. These issues cannot be easily resolved and require much thought and compromise, but any decisions made will most definitely have a significant impact on Nigeria's government and politics.

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#7 Cabinet Nominees to Face Senate Confirmation Monday

An article on VA News states that Goodluck Johnathon's newly constructed cabinet will most likely appear before the Senate on Monday. University of Abuja Political Science Professor Kabiru Mato notes that the confirmation should be a smooth ride with little to no complications due to the fact that many returning members from former president Yar'Adua's Cabinet have once again been nominated.

This new cabinet could be a sign of Johnathon's previous promises to try and make Nigeria a leading contender among the masses and to try and bring Nigeria to it's top potential or rather shaping a Nigeria under himself rather than Yar'Adua. This may give the "Goodluck Administration" , put one way, to erase the previous image of rampant corruption and give the people some sense of legitimacy, which has been a lacking factor among the previous elections and Nigeria in general.

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Nigerian Budget Experiences Increase

According to an article by Reuters posted March 25, the Nigerian Parliament recently approved a dramatic increase in Nigeria's budget. The augmented budget is designed to stimulate the Nigerian economy, which has declined substantially in wake of the global recession. However, this plan can theoretically contribute to the national deficit rising to 5 percent of the GDP. The proposed budget passed both houses of the Parliament overwhelmingly, revealing the government's hopes of finally clamoring out of these troubled economic times. Whereas many countries are recovering from the economic downturn, Nigeria has had almost no progression due to a credit freeze following last year's $4 billion bank bailout. In a move that reveals a nation attempting to revitalize stagnant industries, nearly one third of the 4.079 trillion naira budget is designated for improving Nigeria's infrastructure and power sector, along with developing the oil-rich Niger Delta.

The proposed national debt increase from the 2010 budget lies at 1.52 trillion naira (150 naira = 1 dollar), but analysts fear the number might be higher if poorly managed. Though the budget is widely supported, the omnipresent threat of governmental corruption might destroy the goals of the country and smother it with even greater debt. Furthermore, the budget demonstrates Nigeria's reliance on oil. It assumes that the oil price will on average be $67 per barrel and oil production of 2.35 million barrels per day and if either numbers drop, the national deficit would undoubtedly grow significantly. Nigeria is wagering heavily on the success of this new budget, for if it fails, it would likely concern investors and result in a country who is still incapable of escaping the economic downturn.

Nigeria's planned budget and resulting spending on the countries infrastructure appears somewhat similar to FDR's "New Deal" plan. Both attempted to improve dismal economies by pumping money and supplies into stagnant industries. However, several aspects of Nigeria's political culture and economic practices can potentially derail the government's efforts. For one, corruption and government offices are frequently inseparable. The legitimacy of the government has been severely damaged by repeated cases of politicians pocketing funds which were meant to go to public services. Furthermore, the proposed budget exemplifies Nigeria's reliance on a sole commodity-- oil-- to help recover from the increased deficit. Having a significant portion of the success of the budget tied to oil is dangerous, as a decline in the price or production might result in further economic woes.

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